SNX
TD Synnex Corp
$250.48
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.5% below fair value
You pay
$250.48
Bear
$334.27
Fair
$538.85
Bull
$767.55
Bear
$334.27
+33.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$538.85
+115.1%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$767.55
+206.4%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
13.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.5%
vs 15.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$336.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
60%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $538.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $336.67 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions