SNX
TD Synnex Corp
$242.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 41.3% below fair value
You pay
$242.65
Bear
$254.81
Fair
$413.46
Bull
$590.81
Bear
$254.81
+5.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$413.46
+70.4%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$590.81
+143.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
16.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.8%
vs 15.4% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $333.17 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $413.46 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $333.17 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions