SNV
Synovus Financial Corp.
$50.05
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 9.0% below fair value
You pay
$50.05
Bear
$38.49
Fair
$54.99
Bull
$71.49
Bear
$38.49
-23.1%
ROTCE 7.7% → 0.52x TBV
Fair
$54.99
+9.9%
ROTCE 10.2% → 0.88x TBV
Bull
$71.49
+42.8%
ROTCE 11.7% → 1.10x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
10.2%
11.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (10.2%) vs. cost of equity (11.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.47x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$54.77
Divergence from AlphaVal
0%
Summary
With ROTCE of 10.2% vs. 11.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.88x on $34.07 tangible book, implying $54.99 per share. DDM cross-check: $21.13.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (10.2%) is below the minimum investors require (11.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $21.13 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly