SNDX
Syndax Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$12.90
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 33.7% below fair value
You pay
$12.90
Bear
$7.95
Fair
$19.46
Bull
$28.72
Bear
$7.95
-38.4%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$19.46
+50.9%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$28.72
+122.6%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
69%
Implied Market Multiple
6.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$36.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
47%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 0% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $19.46 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 28% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 28% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.
Gross margin of 96% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Wall Street's average price target is $36.67 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
This stock is 50% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep