SNDR
Schneider National, Inc.
$30.91
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 319.5% above fair value
You pay
$30.91
Bear
$5.36
Fair
$7.37
Bull
$9.38
Bear
$5.36
-82.7%
$1.34 × 4x
Fair
$7.37
-76.2%
$1.34 × 6x
Bull
$9.38
-69.7%
$1.34 × 7x
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
1.34$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.34)
Implied Market Multiple
23.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$37.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.34 at a 6x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $7.37 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 2.1x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 2.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $37.75 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing