SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
$1,703.54
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 23.6% below fair value
You pay
$1,703.54
Bear
$1,420.28
Fair
$2,230.49
Bull
$3,144.04
Bear
$1,420.28
-16.6%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$2,230.49
+30.9%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3,144.04
+84.6%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
21.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.0%
vs 15.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$2152.81
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2230.49 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions