SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
$1,238.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.8% below fair value
You pay
$1,238.03
Bear
$1,455.28
Fair
$2,285.47
Bull
$3,221.54
Bear
$1,455.28
+17.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$2,285.47
+84.6%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3,221.54
+160.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
15.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.1%
vs 15.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$2163.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $2285.47 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions