SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
$1,478.69
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 254.6% above fair value
You pay
$1,478.69
Bear
$333.64
Fair
$417.05
Bull
$500.45
Bear
$333.64
-77.4%
$7.39 × 12x P/E
Fair
$417.05
-71.8%
$7.39 × 15x P/E
Bull
$500.45
-66.2%
$7.39 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
200.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1335.63 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $417.05 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1335.63 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 92% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples