SNDK
Sandisk Corporation
$1,436.56
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 147.1% above fair value
You pay
$1,436.56
Bear
$465.04
Fair
$581.31
Bull
$697.57
Bear
$465.04
-67.6%
$7.39 × 12x P/E
Fair
$581.31
-59.5%
$7.39 × 15x P/E
Bull
$697.57
-51.4%
$7.39 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
194.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1992.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $581.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1992.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples