SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$16.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 74.3% below fair value
You pay
$16.17
Bear
$34.50
Fair
$62.96
Bull
$96.81
Bear
$34.50
+113.4%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$62.96
+289.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$96.81
+498.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
18.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
11.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.5%
vs 18.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (11 analysts)
$21.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
200%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $62.96 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 200% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions