SNCY
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.
$16.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.3% below fair value
You pay
$16.17
Bear
$21.67
Fair
$40.76
Bull
$63.46
Bear
$21.67
+34.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$40.76
+152.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$63.46
+292.4%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
14.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $40.76 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 118% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions