SNA
Snap-on Incorporated
$361.60
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 25.6% above fair value
You pay
$361.60
Bear
$230.28
Fair
$287.85
Bull
$345.42
Bear
$230.28
-36.3%
$19.19 × 12x P/E
Fair
$287.85
-20.4%
$19.19 × 15x P/E
Bull
$345.42
-4.5%
$19.19 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
19.19$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$449.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
36%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $19.19, the base-case value is $287.85 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $449.00 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 36% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples