SNA
Snap-on Incorporated
$366.65
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 13.3% above fair value
You pay
$366.65
Bear
$258.98
Fair
$323.73
Bull
$388.47
Bear
$258.98
-29.4%
$19.60 × 12x P/E
Fair
$323.73
-11.7%
$19.60 × 15x P/E
Bull
$388.47
+6.0%
$19.60 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $413.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $323.73 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $413.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples