SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
$40.35
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 45.0% below fair value
You pay
$40.35
Bear
$58.68
Fair
$73.35
Bull
$88.02
Bear
$58.68
+45.4%
$3.26 × 18x P/E
Fair
$73.35
+81.8%
$3.26 × 22x P/E
Bull
$88.02
+118.1%
$3.26 × 27x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.5x
3.26$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
12.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$41.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
77%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.26, the base-case value is $73.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $41.44 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 77% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples