SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.
$30.66
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 53.6% below fair value
You pay
$30.66
Bear
$38.89
Fair
$66.09
Bull
$98.71
Bear
$38.89
+26.8%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$66.09
+115.5%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$98.71
+221.9%
24% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
13.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.60 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $66.09 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $38.60 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 95% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions