SMA
Smartstop Self Storage REIT Inc
$34.16
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 18.1% above fair value
You pay
$34.16
Bear
$23.76
Fair
$28.92
Bull
$34.09
Bear
$23.76
-30.4%
$1.29 FFO × 23x
Fair
$28.92
-15.3%
$1.29 FFO × 29x
Bull
$34.09
-0.2%
$1.29 FFO × 34x
Adjust Assumptions
28.6x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.29) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
26.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$36.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
20%
Summary
At $1.29 FFO/share with a 29x industrial REIT multiple, the base-case value is $28.92 per share. Dividend yield: 1.6%. DDM cross-check: $10.05.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.6% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $10.05 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify