SMA
Smartstop Self Storage REIT Inc
$35.19
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 8.0% below fair value
You pay
$35.19
Bear
$31.38
Fair
$38.24
Bull
$45.10
Bear
$31.38
-10.8%
$1.80 FFO × 23x
Fair
$38.24
+8.7%
$1.80 FFO × 29x
Bull
$45.10
+28.2%
$1.80 FFO × 34x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.80) × industrial P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
19.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Industrial REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.25 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $38.24 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.5% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.97 (74% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify