SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
$31.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 60.8% below fair value
You pay
$31.70
Bear
$80.87
Fair
$80.87
Bull
$87.55
Bear
$80.87
+155.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$80.87
+155.1%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$87.55
+176.2%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-6.9%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $80.87 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions