SLVM
Sylvamo Corp
$38.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.4% below fair value
You pay
$38.34
Bear
$79.49
Fair
$101.90
Bull
$122.25
Bear
$79.49
+107.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$101.90
+165.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$122.25
+218.8%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (7% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
8.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-3.5%
vs 7.0% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $101.90 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions