SLP
Simulations Plus, Inc.
$18.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.3% above fair value
You pay
$18.50
Bear
$11.78
Fair
$16.62
Bull
$21.77
Bear
$11.78
-36.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$16.62
-10.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$21.77
+17.7%
17% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.4%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
27.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.0%
vs 13.4% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$18.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $16.62 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions