SLNO
Soleno Therapeutics, Inc.
$53.01
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.8% above fair value
You pay
$53.01
Bear
$23.50
Fair
$47.40
Bull
$66.07
Bear
$23.50
-55.7%
18% rev growth, 21% terminal margin
Fair
$47.40
-10.6%
30% rev growth, 28% terminal margin
Bull
$66.07
+24.6%
35% rev growth, 32% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
30.0%
28.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 28%
Terminal Value % of EV
58%
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$53.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
11%
Summary
Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 27% to 28% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $47.40 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay is 24% of revenue — your ownership shrinks by about 2.0% each year as new shares are issued. Our estimate already accounts for this dilution.
Gross margin of 99% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep