SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc.
$41.51
Stable Earnings Power 65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 2.5% above fair value

You pay $41.51
Bear $32.40
Fair $40.50
Bull $48.60
Bear $32.40 -21.9% $2.70 × 12x P/E
Fair $40.50 -2.4% $2.70 × 15x P/E
Bull $48.60 +17.1% $2.70 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.7$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.4x

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (21 analysts) $54.83
Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.70, the base-case value is $40.50 per share. DDM cross-check: $44.16.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $54.83 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples