SLGN
Silgan Holdings Inc.
$41.51
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.5% above fair value
You pay
$41.51
Bear
$32.40
Fair
$40.50
Bull
$48.60
Bear
$32.40
-21.9%
$2.70 × 12x P/E
Fair
$40.50
-2.4%
$2.70 × 15x P/E
Bull
$48.60
+17.1%
$2.70 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.7$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (21 analysts)
$54.83
Divergence from AlphaVal
26%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.70, the base-case value is $40.50 per share. DDM cross-check: $44.16.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $54.83 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples