SLG
SL Green Realty Corp.
$56.84
Distressed or Transitioning
70%
Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 0.0% below fair value
Bear
$0.00
-100.0%
Same FCF, market stays skeptical at 4x
Fair
$0.00
-100.0%
Same FCF, 6x depressed multiple
Bull
$0.00
-100.0%
Same FCF, multiple re-rates to 8x
Adjust Assumptions
6.0x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
41.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$57.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
100%
Summary
Stock is 14% below 52-week high. Using current FCF at a 6x depressed multiple, base-case value is $0.00. Wide scenario range: $0.00–$0.00.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($107.34) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $57.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case