SLB
Slb N.V.
$48.95
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 27.8% above fair value
You pay
$48.95
Bear
$20.62
Fair
$38.29
Bull
$60.50
Bear
$20.62
-57.9%
FCF $3870M × 10x
Fair
$38.29
-21.8%
FCF $4994M × 13x
Bull
$60.50
+23.6%
FCF $6118M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (66 analysts)
$64.58
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $38.29 per share. Range: $20.62 (bear) to $60.50 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $64.58 (from 66 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential