SKYW
SkyWest, Inc.
$99.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.5% below fair value
You pay
$99.06
Bear
$131.88
Fair
$217.84
Bull
$310.28
Bear
$131.88
+33.1%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$217.84
+119.9%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$310.28
+213.2%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.4%
vs 13.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (17 analysts)
$108.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
102%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $217.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $108.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 102% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions