SKYW
SkyWest, Inc.
$97.23
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.3% below fair value
You pay
$97.23
Bear
$73.97
Fair
$108.45
Bull
$141.28
Bear
$73.97
-23.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$108.45
+11.5%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$141.28
+45.3%
12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
16.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.1%
vs 9.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $115.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $108.45 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions