SKYW
SkyWest, Inc.
$84.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.7% below fair value
You pay
$84.82
Bear
$73.00
Fair
$104.33
Bull
$133.59
Bear
$73.00
-13.9%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$104.33
+23.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$133.59
+57.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.33 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions