SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
$60.18
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.0% below fair value
Bear
$70.76
+17.6%
ROTCE 16.2% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$70.76
+17.6%
ROTCE 21.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$70.76
+17.6%
ROTCE 24.9% → 4.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
21.6%
6.0%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (21.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
3.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$66.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
7%
Summary
With ROTCE of 21.6% vs. 6.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $17.69 tangible book, implying $70.76 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly