SKWD
Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.
$56.87
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 25.0% below fair value
Bear
$75.79
+33.3%
ROTCE 16.2% → 4.00x TBV
Fair
$75.79
+33.3%
ROTCE 21.6% → 4.00x TBV
Bull
$75.79
+33.3%
ROTCE 24.9% → 4.00x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (21.6%) vs. cost of equity (6.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.94x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $69.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.79 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly