SKIN
The Beauty Health Company
$0.69
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.9% below fair value
You pay
$0.69
Bear
$2.36
Fair
$2.36
Bull
$2.59
Bear
$2.36
+243.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$2.36
+243.5%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$2.59
+276.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
6.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1.53 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1.53 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 68% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions