SKIN
SkinHealth Systems Inc.
$0.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 81.8% below fair value
You pay
$0.59
Bear
$2.58
Fair
$3.22
Bull
$3.78
Bear
$2.58
+339.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$3.22
+449.6%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$3.78
+545.5%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
35%
Implied Market Multiple
6.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-7.8%
vs 5.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$1.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
115%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.22 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $1.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 115% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions