SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company
$128.64
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 114.5% above fair value
You pay
$128.64
Bear
$49.39
Fair
$59.98
Bull
$70.56
Bear
$49.39
-61.6%
$3.53 × 14x P/E
Fair
$59.98
-53.4%
$3.53 × 17x P/E
Bull
$70.56
-45.1%
$3.53 × 20x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
17.0x
3.53$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
36.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$137.85
Divergence from AlphaVal
56%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.53, the base-case value is $59.98 per share. DDM cross-check: $75.58.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $75.58 (above our primary estimate by 26%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $137.85 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples