SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company
$123.04
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.5% above fair value
You pay
$123.04
Bear
$96.93
Fair
$117.70
Bull
$138.47
Bear
$96.93
-21.2%
$6.84 × 14x P/E
Fair
$117.70
-4.3%
$6.84 × 17x P/E
Bull
$138.47
+12.5%
$6.84 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $121.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $117.70 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $76.05 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples