SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company
$103.36
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.7% below fair value
You pay
$103.36
Bear
$95.29
Fair
$115.71
Bull
$136.13
Bear
$95.29
-7.8%
$6.84 × 14x P/E
Fair
$115.71
+11.9%
$6.84 × 17x P/E
Bull
$136.13
+31.7%
$6.84 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $114.00 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.71 per share.
Warnings
Dividend-based valuation: $76.55 (below our primary estimate by 34%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples