SITM
SiTime Corporation
$728.56
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 363.5% above fair value
Bear
$157.19
-78.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$157.19
-78.4%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$157.19
-78.4%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $664.17 from 9 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $157.19 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $664.17 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 95% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions