SITM
SiTime Corporation
$464.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1632.1% above fair value
Bear
$26.83
-94.2%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$26.83
-94.2%
23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$26.83
-94.2%
30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
23.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (23% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$793.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
97%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 23% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $26.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $793.33 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 97% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions