SITE
SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.
$116.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.1% above fair value
You pay
$116.63
Bear
$73.73
Fair
$104.95
Bull
$135.34
Bear
$73.73
-36.8%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$104.95
-10.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$135.34
+16.0%
13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.4%
vs 9.8% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $161.71 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.95 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $161.71 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 47% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions