SITE
SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.
$91.31
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.0% above fair value
You pay
$91.31
Bear
$66.23
Fair
$90.37
Bull
$113.24
Bear
$66.23
-27.5%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$90.37
-1.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$113.24
+24.0%
11% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
34%
Implied Market Multiple
17.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.9%
vs 8.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$129.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
30%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $90.37 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $129.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 30% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions