SIGA
SIGA Technologies, Inc.
$3.17
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 85.7% below fair value
You pay
$3.17
Bear
$14.25
Fair
$22.10
Bull
$31.21
Bear
$14.25
+349.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$22.10
+597.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$31.21
+884.5%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
16.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
1.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-30.0%
vs 16.7% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $22.10 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions