SIGA
SIGA Technologies, Inc.
$4.68
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 78.9% below fair value
You pay
$4.68
Bear
$14.27
Fair
$22.14
Bull
$31.26
Bear
$14.27
+205.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$22.14
+373.1%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$31.26
+568.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
44%
Implied Market Multiple
4.5x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 17% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $22.14 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions