SIEGY
Siemens AG
$155.30
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.5% above fair value
You pay
$155.30
Bear
$93.06
Fair
$116.32
Bull
$139.59
Bear
$93.06
-40.1%
$7.75 × 12x P/E
Fair
$116.32
-25.1%
$7.75 × 15x P/E
Bull
$139.59
-10.1%
$7.75 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $7.75, the base-case value is $116.32 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 152% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1638 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples