SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
$43.18
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 17.5% below fair value
You pay
$43.18
Bear
$45.82
Fair
$52.37
Bull
$58.92
Bear
$45.82
+6.1%
$2.34 × 20x P/E
Fair
$52.37
+21.3%
$2.34 × 22x P/E
Bull
$58.92
+36.4%
$2.34 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.4x
2.34$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$52.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.34, the base-case value is $52.37 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.10.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 271%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 133% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $13.10 (below our primary estimate by 75%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples