SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
$45.27
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.6% below fair value
You pay
$45.27
Bear
$45.82
Fair
$52.37
Bull
$58.92
Bear
$45.82
+1.2%
$2.34 × 20x P/E
Fair
$52.37
+15.7%
$2.34 × 22x P/E
Bull
$58.92
+30.1%
$2.34 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
22.4x
2.34$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (31 analysts)
$54.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
4%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.34, the base-case value is $52.37 per share. DDM cross-check: $13.10.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 271%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 133% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $13.10 (below our primary estimate by 75%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples