SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd.
$41.93
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 15.6% below fair value
You pay
$41.93
Bear
$43.45
Fair
$49.66
Bull
$55.87
Bear
$43.45
+3.6%
$2.34 × 20x P/E
Fair
$49.66
+18.4%
$2.34 × 22x P/E
Bull
$55.87
+33.2%
$2.34 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $43.33 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.66 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 271%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 133% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $17.79 (below our primary estimate by 66%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples