SHC Sotera Health Company
$15.66
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 89.1% above fair value

You pay $15.66
Bear $6.62
Fair $8.28
Bull $9.94
Bear $6.62 -57.7% $0.32 × 12x P/E
Fair $8.28 -47.1% $0.32 × 15x P/E
Bull $9.94 -36.6% $0.32 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 48.4x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $22.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.28 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $22.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples