SGHC
Super Group (SGHC) Limited
$11.12
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 39.5% below fair value
You pay
$11.12
Bear
$12.78
Fair
$18.38
Bull
$24.29
Bear
$12.78
+15.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$18.38
+65.3%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.29
+118.4%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (13% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
15.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
5.7%
vs 12.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $18.38 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions