SGHC
Super Group (SGHC) Limited
$13.51
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 33.5% above fair value
You pay
$13.51
Bear
$8.10
Fair
$10.12
Bull
$12.14
Bear
$8.10
-40.1%
$0.45 × 14x P/E
Fair
$10.12
-25.1%
$0.45 × 18x P/E
Bull
$12.14
-10.1%
$0.45 × 21x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (18x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
30.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $19.00 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $10.12 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 88% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples