SGHC
Super Group (SGHC) Limited
$14.89
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 10.0% below fair value
You pay
$14.89
Bear
$11.73
Fair
$16.55
Bull
$21.56
Bear
$11.73
-21.2%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$16.55
+11.1%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$21.56
+44.8%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
21.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.2%
vs 12.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $13.71 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $13.71 (from 8 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions