SGHC
Super Group (SGHC) Limited
$13.82
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.1% below fair value
You pay
$13.82
Bear
$12.44
Fair
$17.53
Bull
$22.81
Bear
$12.44
-10.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$17.53
+26.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$22.81
+65.1%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
19.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
8.8%
vs 12.2% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (8 analysts)
$18.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
3%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $17.53 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions