SFL
SFL Corporation Ltd
$12.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 72.8% below fair value
You pay
$12.86
Bear
$27.79
Fair
$47.31
Bull
$67.41
Bear
$27.79
+116.1%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$47.31
+267.8%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$67.41
+424.2%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.7%
vs 11.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
238%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $47.31 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 238% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions