SFL
SFL Corporation Ltd
$12.34
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 72.8% below fair value
You pay
$12.34
Bear
$26.65
Fair
$45.36
Bull
$64.65
Bear
$26.65
+115.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$45.36
+267.6%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$64.65
+423.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.9%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
11.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
1.7%
vs 11.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$14.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
224%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $45.36 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.00 (from 9 analysts). Our estimate is 224% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions