SF
Stifel Financial Corp
$80.01
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 24.4% below fair value
You pay
$80.01
Bear
$74.09
Fair
$105.84
Bull
$137.59
Bear
$74.09
-7.4%
ROTCE 11.6% → 1.33x TBV
Fair
$105.84
+32.3%
ROTCE 15.5% → 2.00x TBV
Bull
$137.59
+72.0%
ROTCE 17.8% → 2.41x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
15.5%
9.8%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.5%) vs. cost of equity (9.8%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.75x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$90.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
18%
Summary
With ROTCE of 15.5% vs. 9.8% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.00x on $29.06 tangible book, implying $105.84 per share. DDM cross-check: $59.82.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $59.82 (43% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly