SF
Stifel Financial Corp
$75.20
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.9% below fair value
You pay
$75.20
Bear
$83.49
Fair
$119.27
Bull
$155.05
Bear
$83.49
+11.0%
ROTCE 11.6% → 1.30x TBV
Fair
$119.27
+58.6%
ROTCE 15.5% → 1.97x TBV
Bull
$155.05
+106.2%
ROTCE 17.8% → 2.36x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.5%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.62x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.00 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $119.27 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $89.00 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly