SF
Stifel Financial Corp
$67.56
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 55.8% below fair value
You pay
$67.56
Bear
$107.02
Fair
$152.88
Bull
$198.74
Bear
$107.02
+58.4%
ROTCE 11.6% → 1.30x TBV
Fair
$152.88
+126.3%
ROTCE 15.5% → 1.96x TBV
Bull
$198.74
+194.2%
ROTCE 17.8% → 2.36x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
15.5%
9.9%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.5%) vs. cost of equity (9.9%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.32x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$79.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
92%
Summary
With ROTCE of 15.5% vs. 9.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.96x on $29.17 tangible book, implying $152.88 per share. DDM cross-check: $57.21.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $57.21 (63% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $79.50 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 92% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly