SF
Stifel Financial Corp.
$72.59
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.4% below fair value
You pay
$72.59
Bear
$96.62
Fair
$138.02
Bull
$179.42
Bear
$96.62
+33.1%
ROTCE 11.6% → 1.25x TBV
Fair
$138.02
+90.1%
ROTCE 15.5% → 1.88x TBV
Bull
$179.42
+147.2%
ROTCE 17.8% → 2.26x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (15.5%) vs. cost of equity (10.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.53x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.44 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $138.02 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $93.44 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly