SEPN
Septerna Inc
$34.54
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.0% below fair value
You pay
$34.54
Bear
$31.76
Fair
$55.72
Bull
$84.78
Bear
$31.76
-8.1%
15% rev growth, 100% terminal margin
Fair
$55.72
+61.3%
25% rev growth, 133% terminal margin
Bull
$84.78
+145.5%
33% rev growth, 153% terminal margin
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (25%) × margin expansion to 133%
Terminal Value % of EV
49%
Implied Market Multiple
25.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a discounted cash flow model based on revenue growth and long-run free cash flow margins. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.20 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.72 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 100% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep