SEPN
Septerna Inc
$36.35
High-Growth Software
80%
Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.8% below fair value
You pay
$36.35
Bear
$29.93
Fair
$49.67
Bull
$72.52
Bear
$29.93
-17.7%
13% rev growth, 100% terminal margin
Fair
$49.67
+36.6%
22% rev growth, 133% terminal margin
Bull
$72.52
+99.5%
29% rev growth, 153% terminal margin
Adjust Assumptions
22.0%
133.0%
12.0%
Key Value Driver
Revenue growth (22%) × margin expansion to 133%
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
28.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$50.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
1%
Summary
Projecting 22% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 239% to 133% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $49.67 per share.
Warnings
Gross margin of 100% means each dollar of revenue is highly profitable. As the company grows, overhead costs should shrink as a share of revenue, boosting overall profits.
Key Risks
- Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
- SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
- Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep