SENEA
Seneca Foods Corporation
$139.04
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 38.6% above fair value
You pay
$139.04
Bear
$82.60
Fair
$100.30
Bull
$118.00
Bear
$82.60
-40.6%
$5.90 × 14x P/E
Fair
$100.30
-27.9%
$5.90 × 17x P/E
Bull
$118.00
-15.1%
$5.90 × 20x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.90, the base-case value is $100.30 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples