SE Sea Limited
$107.41
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 30.3% above fair value

You pay $107.41
Bear $72.14
Fair $82.44
Bull $92.75
Bear $72.14 -32.8% $2.52 × 21x P/E
Fair $82.44 -23.3% $2.52 × 24x P/E
Bull $92.75 -13.6% $2.52 × 27x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (24x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 42.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $133.60 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.44 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $194.93 (above our primary estimate by 222%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $133.60 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 55% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples