SDGR
Schrödinger, Inc.
$16.27
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 102.8% above fair value
Bear
$8.02
-50.7%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$8.02
-50.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$8.02
-50.7%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.80 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.02 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $24.80 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 85% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions