SDGR
Schrödinger, Inc.
$27.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 612.4% above fair value
Bear
$3.83
-86.0%
10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$3.83
-86.0%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$3.83
-86.0%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
0%
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$19.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.83 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $19.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions