SCVL
Shoe Carnival, Inc.
$15.61
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.2% below fair value
You pay
$15.61
Bear
$32.16
Fair
$40.20
Bull
$48.24
Bear
$32.16
+106.0%
$2.68 × 12x P/E
Fair
$40.20
+157.5%
$2.68 × 15x P/E
Bull
$48.24
+209.0%
$2.68 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.68$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (15 analysts)
$23.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
75%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.68, the base-case value is $40.20 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 41%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $23.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 75% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples