SCSC
ScanSource, Inc.
$58.20
Stable Earnings Power
50%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 6.6% above fair value
You pay
$58.20
Bear
$43.68
Fair
$54.60
Bull
$65.52
Bear
$43.68
-24.9%
$3.64 × 12x P/E
Fair
$54.60
-6.2%
$3.64 × 15x P/E
Bull
$65.52
+12.6%
$3.64 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.64, the base-case value is $54.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples