SCSC
ScanSource, Inc.
$60.98
Stable Earnings Power
50%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.7% above fair value
You pay
$60.98
Bear
$43.68
Fair
$54.60
Bull
$65.52
Bear
$43.68
-28.4%
$3.64 × 12x P/E
Fair
$54.60
-10.5%
$3.64 × 15x P/E
Bull
$65.52
+7.4%
$3.64 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
3.64$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$43.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.64, the base-case value is $54.60 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $43.00 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 27% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples