SCHW The Charles Schwab Corporation
$101.61
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 8.0% above fair value

You pay $101.61
Bear $74.98
Fair $94.08
Bull $122.31
Bear $74.98 -26.2% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.56x TBV
Fair $94.08 -7.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull $122.31 +20.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (29.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 5.84x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $124.44 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.08 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $124.44 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly