SBH
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc.
$15.90
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 47.4% below fair value
You pay
$15.90
Bear
$26.46
Fair
$30.24
Bull
$34.02
Bear
$26.46
+66.4%
$1.89 × 14x P/E
Fair
$30.24
+90.2%
$1.89 × 16x P/E
Bull
$34.02
+114.0%
$1.89 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.89$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
8.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (30 analysts)
$16.17
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.89, the base-case value is $30.24 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.17 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 87% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples