SBCF
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida
$30.49
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 43.0% above fair value
You pay
$30.49
Bear
$14.93
Fair
$21.33
Bull
$27.72
Bear
$14.93
-51.0%
ROTCE 6.0% → 0.37x TBV
Fair
$21.33
-30.1%
ROTCE 7.9% → 0.76x TBV
Bull
$27.72
-9.1%
ROTCE 9.1% → 0.98x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.62x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.33 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.9%) is below the minimum investors require (9.2%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $24.89 (41% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly