SBCF
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida
$32.92
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 51.7% above fair value
You pay
$32.92
Bear
$15.19
Fair
$21.70
Bull
$28.21
Bear
$15.19
-53.9%
ROTCE 6.0% → 0.39x TBV
Fair
$21.70
-34.1%
ROTCE 7.9% → 0.78x TBV
Bull
$28.21
-14.3%
ROTCE 9.1% → 1.02x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.75x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.70 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.9%) is below the minimum investors require (9.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $26.48 (50% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly