SBCF
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida
$31.74
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 80.3% above fair value
You pay
$31.74
Bear
$12.32
Fair
$17.60
Bull
$22.88
Bear
$12.32
-61.2%
ROTCE 6.0% → 0.37x TBV
Fair
$17.60
-44.5%
ROTCE 7.9% → 0.74x TBV
Bull
$22.88
-27.9%
ROTCE 9.1% → 0.96x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
7.9%
9.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (7.9%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.69x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$35.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
50%
Summary
With ROTCE of 7.9% vs. 9.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.74x on $18.77 tangible book, implying $17.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $17.78.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (7.9%) is below the minimum investors require (9.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $35.50 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 50% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly