SBAC
SBA Communications Corporation
$182.49
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.0% below fair value
You pay
$182.49
Bear
$362.93
Fair
$445.41
Bull
$527.90
Bear
$362.93
+98.9%
$12.69 FFO × 29x
Fair
$445.41
+144.1%
$12.69 FFO × 35x
Bull
$527.90
+189.3%
$12.69 FFO × 42x
Adjust Assumptions
35.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($12.69) × specialty P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
14.4x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (42 analysts)
$223.71
Divergence from AlphaVal
99%
Summary
At $12.69 FFO/share with a 35x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $445.41 per share. Dividend yield: 2.7%.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $223.71 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 99% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify