SB
Safe Bulkers, Inc.
$8.09
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 32.6% below fair value
You pay
$8.09
Bear
$8.75
Fair
$12.00
Bull
$15.03
Bear
$8.75
+8.2%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$12.00
+48.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$15.03
+85.8%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
13.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.0%
vs 8.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$4.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
186%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $12.00 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $4.20 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 186% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions