SATS
EchoStar Corporation
$124.20
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 146.0% above fair value
You pay
$124.20
Bear
$40.38
Fair
$50.48
Bull
$60.58
Bear
$40.38
-67.5%
$1.93 × 12x P/E
Fair
$50.48
-59.4%
$1.93 × 15x P/E
Bull
$60.58
-51.2%
$1.93 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
64.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.40 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.48 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $136.40 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 79% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples