SAP
SAP SE
$232.62
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 54.8% above fair value
You pay
$232.62
Bear
$125.79
Fair
$150.24
Bull
$174.70
Bear
$125.79
-45.9%
$6.99 × 18x P/E
Fair
$150.24
-35.4%
$6.99 × 22x P/E
Bull
$174.70
-24.9%
$6.99 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
6.99$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
33.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (43 analysts)
$253.40
Divergence from AlphaVal
41%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $6.99, the base-case value is $150.24 per share.
Warnings
The company pays out 146% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $253.40 (from 43 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1199 USD per EUR.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples