SANM
Sanmina Corporation
$246.44
Stable Earnings Power
50%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 146.0% above fair value
You pay
$246.44
Bear
$80.14
Fair
$100.18
Bull
$120.21
Bear
$80.14
-67.5%
$4.46 × 12x P/E
Fair
$100.18
-59.4%
$4.46 × 15x P/E
Bull
$120.21
-51.2%
$4.46 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
55.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $200.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.18 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $200.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 67% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples