SAM
The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
$168.16
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 19.0% below fair value
You pay
$168.16
Bear
$178.02
Fair
$207.69
Bull
$237.36
Bear
$178.02
+5.9%
$9.89 × 18x P/E
Fair
$207.69
+23.5%
$9.89 × 21x P/E
Bull
$237.36
+41.2%
$9.89 × 24x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.0x
9.89$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (32 analysts)
$204.44
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $9.89, the base-case value is $207.69 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples