SAM
The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
$190.10
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 13.4% below fair value
You pay
$190.10
Bear
$188.13
Fair
$219.49
Bull
$250.84
Bear
$188.13
-1.0%
$9.99 × 18x P/E
Fair
$219.49
+15.5%
$9.99 × 21x P/E
Bull
$250.84
+32.0%
$9.99 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $242.25 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $219.49 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples