SAM
The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
$168.45
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.4% below fair value
You pay
$168.45
Bear
$186.04
Fair
$217.04
Bull
$248.05
Bear
$186.04
+10.4%
$9.99 × 18x P/E
Fair
$217.04
+28.8%
$9.99 × 21x P/E
Bull
$248.05
+47.3%
$9.99 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
16.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $234.11 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $217.04 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples