SAIC
Science Applications International Corporation
$100.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.1% above fair value
You pay
$100.01
Bear
$98.97
Fair
$98.97
Bull
$109.59
Bear
$98.97
-1.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$98.97
-1.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$109.59
+9.6%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
12.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $97.50 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.97 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions