SAIC
Science Applications International Corporation
$115.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 11.1% above fair value
You pay
$115.51
Bear
$103.99
Fair
$103.99
Bull
$115.15
Bear
$103.99
-10.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$103.99
-10.0%
3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$115.15
-0.3%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
33%
Implied Market Multiple
14.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
4.2%
vs 3.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.75 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $103.99 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions