SAFE
Safehold Inc.
$14.66
Real Estate Investment Trust
85%
P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 67.5% below fair value
You pay
$14.66
Bear
$37.80
Fair
$45.15
Bull
$52.50
Bear
$37.80
+157.8%
$1.72 FFO × 18x
Fair
$45.15
+208.0%
$1.72 FFO × 22x
Bull
$52.50
+258.1%
$1.72 FFO × 26x
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.72) × diversified P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
8.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Diversified REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $45.15 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $95.40 (73% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 268% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify