RYZ
Ryerson Holding Corporation
$24.51
Platform & Compounding FCF
50%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.3% below fair value
You pay
$24.51
Bear
$40.52
Fair
$51.33
Bull
$60.77
Bear
$40.52
+65.3%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$51.33
+109.4%
6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$60.77
+148.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
5.7%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
8.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
-0.9%
vs 5.7% base
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $51.33 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions