RYAN
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
$32.68
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 93.2% above fair value
You pay
$32.68
Bear
$11.85
Fair
$16.91
Bull
$22.00
Bear
$11.85
-63.7%
ROTCE 7.3% → 0.83x TBV
Fair
$16.91
-48.2%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.44x TBV
Bull
$22.00
-32.7%
ROTCE 11.3% → 1.81x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (8.0%)
Implied Market Multiple
6.53x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.91 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $42.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly