RYAN
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
$40.41
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 149.1% above fair value
You pay
$40.41
Bear
$11.37
Fair
$16.23
Bull
$21.10
Bear
$11.37
-71.9%
ROTCE 7.3% → 0.92x TBV
Fair
$16.23
-59.8%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.60x TBV
Bull
$21.10
-47.8%
ROTCE 11.3% → 2.01x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
8.07x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $39.25 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.23 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $39.25 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly