RYAN
Ryan Specialty Holdings, Inc.
$37.79
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
90%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 358.1% above fair value
You pay
$37.79
Bear
$5.77
Fair
$8.25
Bull
$10.72
Bear
$5.77
-84.7%
ROTCE 7.3% → 0.92x TBV
Fair
$8.25
-78.2%
ROTCE 9.8% → 1.59x TBV
Bull
$10.72
-71.6%
ROTCE 11.3% → 2.00x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
9.8%
7.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (9.8%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
7.55x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$46.56
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Summary
With ROTCE of 9.8% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.59x on $5.01 tangible book, implying $8.25 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $46.56 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly