RVLV Revolve Group, Inc.
$19.23
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Fair Value

Trading 14.9% below fair value

You pay $19.23
Bear $19.77
Fair $22.59
Bull $25.42
Bear $19.77 +2.8% $0.86 × 20x P/E
Fair $22.59 +17.5% $0.86 × 23x P/E
Bull $25.42 +32.2% $0.86 × 26x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.3x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.56 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.59 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $29.56 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples