RVLV Revolve Group, Inc.
$24.88
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 11.8% above fair value

You pay $24.88
Bear $19.48
Fair $22.26
Bull $25.04
Bear $19.48 -21.7% $0.86 × 20x P/E
Fair $22.26 -10.5% $0.86 × 23x P/E
Bull $25.04 +0.6% $0.86 × 26x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (23x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.43 from 30 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $22.26 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $28.43 (from 30 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples