RUN
Sunrun Inc.
$11.63
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 63.8% below fair value
You pay
$11.63
Bear
$25.70
Fair
$32.12
Bull
$38.54
Bear
$25.70
+120.9%
$1.71 × 18x P/E
Fair
$32.12
+176.2%
$1.71 × 22x P/E
Bull
$38.54
+231.4%
$1.71 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.29 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.12 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $17.29 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 123% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples