RUN
Sunrun Inc.
$9.94
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 68.8% below fair value
You pay
$9.94
Bear
$25.51
Fair
$31.89
Bull
$38.26
Bear
$25.51
+156.6%
$1.71 × 18x P/E
Fair
$31.89
+220.8%
$1.71 × 22x P/E
Bull
$38.26
+284.9%
$1.71 × 27x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
5.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.50 from 37 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $31.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.50 (from 37 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples