RRX
Regal Rexnord Corporation
$162.29
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 61.7% below fair value
You pay
$162.29
Bear
$257.68
Fair
$424.24
Bull
$604.35
Bear
$257.68
+58.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$424.24
+161.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$604.35
+272.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
13.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
42%
Implied Market Multiple
13.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.6%
vs 13.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (22 analysts)
$258.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $424.24 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $258.20 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions