RRX Regal Rexnord Corporation
$162.29
Platform & Compounding FCF 85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 61.7% below fair value

You pay $162.29
Bear $257.68
Fair $424.24
Bull $604.35
Bear $257.68 +58.8% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair $424.24 +161.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull $604.35 +272.4% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (14% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 13.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.6% vs 13.8% base

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.

Average Target (22 analysts) $258.20
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $424.24 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $258.20 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions